Funviralpark Sign up for The Brief. This is a daily newsletter that keeps readers up to date on the most important Texas news.
HOUSTON — Electricity demand dashed grid operators’ peak expectations for the maximum amount of electricity people will use to stay warm this winter as Texas was shrouded in freezing temperatures late Thursday into Friday morning. .
Fortunately, the state’s grid was maintained, but the test of resilience is far from over. High demand is expected to continue through Saturday, but power supply from wind, which has provided a significant boost during the devastating Arctic explosions, will likely decline.
Friday morning power demand hovered around 74,000 megawatts and was expected to decrease as the day warmed. This was well above the 2021 stormy winter record of 69,871 megawatts. But that record demand doesn’t explain how much electricity Texas used at the time, as blackouts hit much of the state.
Officials on Thursday had forecast demand for nearly 70,000 megawatts on Friday morning. Overnight, the gap between reality and expectations widened further, with power usage exceeding official estimates by more than 10,000 megawatts in some locations.
“This has been a big surprise so far,” said Daniel Cohan, an atmospheric scientist at Rice University.
Atmos Energy was working to address low gas pressure issues in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, according to the Texas Railroad Commission, which regulates the oil and gas industry. Low natural gas pressure can cause heaters to burn out or stoves to fail to ignite. Atmos supplies gas to people in eight states, including Texas. The company posted a conservation warning on its website Friday asking customers not to use natural gas fireplaces, turn down the thermostat and not use washers, dryers or ovens over the Christmas weekend.
A company representative did not respond to emailed questions from The Texas Tribune about whether the protection request applies to customers in Texas and how many customers may be affected. Instead, he said the volume of calls was high and customers could experience long wait times to speak to someone.
Such miscalculations have kept experts focused on how the grid will hold up on Friday night. Officials with the Texas Power Reliability Council, which manages the power grid that supplies power to much of the state, expect that enough power will be generated to keep the lights on and electric heaters running. was But if forecasts go wrong again, or problems with natural gas suppliers or power plants, it could trigger grid operators to encourage residents to conserve electricity.
Temperatures dropped into single digits across the state on Thursday, with temperatures hitting a low of 1 degree Celsius in parts of the Panhandle on Thursday night, according to the National Weather Service. Winter weather brought gusts of wind up to 40 mph in parts of North Texas. Parts of the state were getting light rains, but the precipitation was not wet to the ground.
At least one person found unresponsive outside a McDonald’s in Fort Worth has died, according to news reports.
According to Cohan, grid operator performance to date highlights the uncertainty of forecasting power demand during such rare freezes. Who knew how high the demand for electricity was when grid operators asked many utilities to cut power during the winter storms of February 2021, as demand was far outstripping supply. I don’t know either.
ERCOT’s seasonal assessment this winter projected a peak demand of 67,398 megawatts. The 2021 storm needed more than that. Meanwhile, the state’s population has grown, and this year he topped 30 million.
Ed Hirs, an energy economist at the University of Houston, says going back in time to predict future erratic weather will not work.
“They’ve done a poor job of estimating peak demand here,” said Hirs. “Why? Why are they short? This shows, first of all, a rewarding incompetence.”
The Texas grid is designed primarily to be reliable during the summer months, says Michael Weber, a professor of energy resources at the University of Texas at Austin. Rather than being housed in buildings to retain heat, power plants are left exposed in the summer to allow heat to escape. Of course, this becomes a problem in winter.
After the 2021 storms, power producers took steps to better protect against extreme cold. Natural gas producers weren’t facing the same pressure, Webber said. Freezing gas production could cause problems, as happened in 2021. Gas power is typically dominant in Texas winters.
“We built the whole system around the idea that everyone turns on the air conditioner at 5pm in August. You have to run and operate the system.”It is remarkable, surprising and relevant that peak demand in winter might happen today. Holy cow. We have such a system was not designed.”
ERCOT and the Public Utilities Council, which regulates grid operators, have agreed that natural gas-fired power plants will have additional fuel sources on-site after 2021, and an agreement between power regulators, oil and gas regulators, and the Texas Emergency Agency. Improvements such as improved communication have been made. management.
However, the surge in electricity usage further indicates that ERCOT has done little to facilitate reductions in demand at the individual level, for example by helping people improve the energy efficiency of their homes, They pay to turn the thermostat down, says Luke Metzger, executive director of Environment Texas. .
Reducing demand would also help reduce the pollution that contributes to climate change, which causes extreme weather, Metzger noted.
“It is clear that clean energy must once again be the solution as we need to avoid climate change causing extreme weather that is contributing to grid instability,” Metzger said.
So far, the power grid has been working well, but some Texans are still experiencing power outages. Approximately 16,000 CenterPoint Energy customers lost power at 9 a.m. in the Houston metropolitan area due to high winds, and 189,000 lost power, which was restored within the last 24 hours.
Thousands of homes in Bandera and Medina counties near San Antonio also experienced power outages on Friday morning due to surges in demand and equipment failures. An official with Bandera Electric Cooperative, a local utility company, said the load had to be moved, resulting in an isolated planned outage.
MedStar EMS is a community emergency medical service in more than a dozen cities in North Texas, including Fort Worth, handling 27 cold-related illness calls between 9 a.m. Thursday and 6 a.m. Friday. . Twenty-three patients were taken to local hospitals, two of whom were in critical condition. KDFW-TV reported that one of them did not respond and subsequently died.
Cold temperatures are expected to continue in Texas Friday through Saturday morning, with freezing temperatures expected for most of the state through Christmas.
Pooja Salhotra and Lucy Tompkins contributed to the report.
Disclosure: CenterPoint Energy, Rice University, University of Texas at Austin, and University of Houston are part of The Texas Tribune, a non-profit, bipartisan news organization funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. is a financial supporter of Financial backers play no part in Tribune journalism. Find their complete list here.
