Funviralpark ITHACA, New York — A large and powerful storm system can wreak havoc on holiday travel and outdoor activities as heavy rains, noxious winds, and dangerous wind chills sweep across the state and region.
The cyclone storm system is expected to intensify rapidly as it crosses the lower Great Lakes west of Ithaca and Tompkins County, a process known as explosive cyclone formation or “bombogenesis.” This storm is very powerful and the expected core pressures are more typical of oceanic cyclones and hurricanes than continental storm systems. The National Weather Service’s Buffalo office describes it as a “once-in-a-generation type event.”
The system’s northeasterly track to the west of Tompkins County means that Tompkins County will initially be in the warmer part of the counterclockwise circulation of lows as the intensifying storm approaches.
In Tompkins County Thursday through Friday morning, the first short snowfalls will turn to rain in the early afternoon, followed by moderate to heavy rain through the night, with 0.50 to 1.00 inches before midnight and another 0.50 to 1.00 after midnight. It will drop an inch. 10-15 SE, 25-30 MPH gusts during the day, 20-25 MPH SE, 40-50 MPH gusts at night, increasing winds during the day. Temperatures will continue to rise, in the low 30s on Thursday morning, hovering around 40 degrees by sunset, and approaching 50 degrees by sunrise on Friday.
Temperatures will begin to drop rapidly as a slow cold front sweeps through the region. Temperatures will drop from near 50s for him at 8am, to mid-30s by noon, and above 10s for him by 6pm. The rest of the rain will turn to snow, but expect 1-2 inches of precipitation. However, up to 2 inches of precipitation can occur hours before the Arctic air arrives, causing a stagnant water “flash freeze” event. The wind continues to gust 45 to 55 miles per hour, with temperatures plummeting overnight. Minimum temperatures will increase by 5 to 10 degrees Celsius, with cold nights ranging from 10 to 20 degrees Fahrenheit Friday through Saturday.
The system began to lift on Saturday, with gusts of 30 to 40 miles per hour, slowly settling on Saturday night. Snow showers are possible, skies will be partly cloudy, highs will be in the high teens, and winds will be in the 0s or slightly below. Saturday night will be cloudy with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees warmer and wind chills of 0 to 10 degrees.
There is a lot of movement during the year-end and New Year holidays, and there are many outdoor activities, so please be careful. Strong winds can cause sporadic blackouts and blow around unsecured objects such as outdoor ornaments. Heavy rains, initially warm temperatures, and blowing coastal waters can cause excessive runoff and localized flooding. Numerous wet surfaces will quickly freeze Friday afternoon, and icy roads and sidewalks are expected in addition to the late-winter mixture. Friday night’s dangerously windy cold can cause frostbite and hypothermia if exposed or unclothed people stay outside for long periods of time.
Adjust your vacation trips and outdoor plans accordingly. From Thursday night to Saturday morning, it’s difficult and dangerous to navigate most of the NYS. This is a high-impact, multi-faceted winter storm with widespread effects. Stronger winds are expected in western New York. The lake’s effects will cause whiteout conditions north of Buffalo and north of Syracuse on Friday night, with blizzards and snow drifts. Excessive rainfall and high winds cause flooding of downstate cities and coastlines. A severe cold brings dangerously cold temperatures throughout the southern layers and the Catskill Mountains. Blizzard conditions are impacting the Midwest, with freezing temperatures as far south as Tennessee and Carolina, and frost as far south as the Mexican border and Orlando.
Further updates on this complex and powerful storm system can be found at the National Weather Service Binghamton office here.
