Funviralpark NFL Picks for Week 16
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Chris Rayvon: The Vikings are overrated for their record (11-3) despite trailing by 44.6 yards per game.
Despite the talent gap between the two games, the Giants are the better team, ranking 22nd overall in the DVOA compared to the 25th-ranked Vikings. Evaluating recent game moves, the Giants look at his 21st weighted DVOA and the Vikings his 26th weighted DVOA, there’s a slightly bigger disparity.
The Giants defense has the best man coverage in the league with Kirk Cousins struggling. He averages 7.2 yards per targeted pass attempt against men compared to his 8.3 yards against the zone. The Giants also have the highest percentage of blitzes in the league (40.7%), making beating blitzes a big problem for Cousins as well. His professional his football his focus his grade 52.7, in the blitz he ranks his 36th among 39 qualified quarterbacks and suffers from declining efficiency overall.
- Unblitzed cousin: 68.4% completion, 7.5 yards per attempt, 95.7 rating
- Cousins vs. Blitz: 55.6% completion, 5.6 yards per attempt, 80.4 rating
Blitzkrieg wasn’t the only thing that caused problems for Cousins. He has also struggled with pressure from his rushing four-man passer when under pressure his rate dropped to his 79.4.
Despite their blitz-happy identity, the Giants came in fourth in overall pressure percentage (24.5%). That’s thanks to a now-healthy front 4 with Kavon Tidvordax and Aziz Oljali on the edges and Leonard Williams and Dexter Lawrence on the interior. New York should be able to find success against Minnesota’s offensive line. Cousins was able to put pressure on his 37.0% of the seventh-most dropped backs.
That’s a big reason why the Vikings are 22nd in Offensive DVOA and 22nd if you put more weight on their recent games. Williams and Lawrence, in particular, should be able to wreak internal havoc against right guard Ed Ingram and center Austin Schrottman, who is a struggling rookie and has 75 in PFF. Eligible pass for him ranked him 68th among protection guards. Schrottman was an undrafted professional in his fifth season, and in his first two starts he allowed nine pressure Garrett. made his third starting lineup.
The Vikings still get the ball moving here, but the pressure should help the Giants stop in key situations. This has been official all season, as New York ranks 4th in allowed red zone conversion rate (50.0%) and 5th in allowed third down conversion rate (34.9%).
Surprisingly, the Giants’ offense was the more efficient of the two, ranking 14th overall and 12th when recent games are weighed. Meanwhile, the Vikings’ defense is trending downward at 20th overall, and in weighted DVOA, he ranks 24th. The Vikings’ defense allowed opponents to move the ball freely — the 5,589 total yards allowed is a league-high — but it bodes well as they created the ninth-most turnovers (29) It wasn’t. It took the league lead with just 13 presents against the Giant Offense tied with Philadelphia.
One of the main reasons the Giants don’t turn the ball over is the play of Daniel Jones, who leads the league with an interception rate of 1.0%.
Jones threw only one interception in six road games this season and was one of the best quarterbacks to return to the road throughout his career. According to Action Labs data, in his career he’s 15-5-1 (75%) ATS load his underdog and 12-1 (92%) ATS load his dog has 8 points. less than
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Chris Rayvon: This is one of the highest totals for the week, as the forecast calls for a temperature of “only” 11 degrees below zero and average winds of “just” 11 miles per hour. The defense is trending upwards, with the Panthers placing him 10th in his DVOA defense since Week 10 and the Lions his 15th (in a game where Jared Goff started at his under-40 tempo, the underscored his It is worth noting that it is 6-3 of ).
The Lions defense has turned around spectacularly since they changed plans for Week 9 and fired defensive back coach Aubrey Pleasant, improving not just on passing but across the board. doing. Here are the numbers per game before and after the change:
- Weeks 1-8: 32.1 points, 421.3 total yards, 0.75 turnovers
- Weeks 9-15: 19.9 points, 375.7 total yards, 1.71 turnovers
The Lions went from giving up 154.9 yards per game in the first seven games to 112.0 yards in the final seven. This is big against the Panthers offense, where he has called design runs 51.0% of the time since interim coach Steve Wilkes took over. Faced with a difficult slate of top scramblers that included Justin Fields and Josh Allen, 45% of the rushing yards Detroit allowed after Week 9 went to opposing quarterbacks, still outsmarting the Lions in this matchup. It may be sold short.
Against running backs since Week 8, the Lions are allowing just 56.3 yards on 17.6 carries per game, an impressive 3.2 yards per carry allowed.
Sam Darnold is less of a threat on the ground. He averages 3.0 carries and he has 11.7 yards. Darnold struggled when the defense sent in an extra rusher and against the Blitz he was 59.8 PFF graded and at least he has 20 Blitz he has a dropback He is among 48 quarterbacks came in 38th place.
It’s not one of the worst-weather games of the week, but it’s worth noting that the Lions’ offense has dropped significantly going on the road this season, regardless of the circumstances.
- Home: 32.1 points, 341.7 total yards, 0.75 turnovers
- Loading: 18.7 points, 401.4 total yards, 1.33 turnovers
The Lions had a good defense last week in a trip for the Jets, but despite scoring 20 points, it was Caliph Raymond’s punt return that put the Jets 4 inches and a few inches from their chances of scoring just 6 points. It’s worth noting that we broke coverage at a distance. (Michael Badgley’s failed field he has nine if you include his goal). The Lions aren’t looking to put out huge numbers against the Panthers’ defense, where he’s allowed just 13.0 points per game at home since Wilkes took over.
Neither offense can get an assist from an official, as Sean Hochuli’s crew is more than the league average of 2.19, with most crews taking offensive holding penalties of 3.0 per game. According to Action Labs data, Hochili’s underscore in games is 41-29-3 (59%). This includes his 8-5 (62%) mark this season and his 23-5-1 (82%) mark when the total is under his 45.
What is Quickslip?
QuickSlip is an action network feature that allows users to automatically preload bet slips on FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Chris Rayvon: Malik Willis simply passed the ball to Derrick Henry 32 times for 219 yards and two touchdowns to give these teams a 17-10 win in their first matchup against the league’s worst run defense at the time. I got it. I struggled this time. The Texans then improved on their run defense, and after Week 10, he ranked 10th in his DVOA against runs.
Additionally, the Titans placed center Ben Jones (concussion) and guard Nate Davis (ankle) on IR this week. Jones had a PFF grade of 72.6, eighth of 39 qualifiers at center, and Davis had a PFF grade of 70.6, 18th of 86 qualifiers at guard, so both are big losses. The duo joined left tackle Taylor Lewan (knee).
The Titans have also dealt with a number of injuries on defense. They ruled out cornerback Christian Fulton (groin), linebacker Dylan Cole (ankle) and placed cornerback Terrence Mitchell (hamstring) on IR this week. We lost linebacker David Long (ankle), who was ranked 14th out of 80 linebackers.
With injuries on both sides of the ball, this is far from a gimme for the Titans, especially with Willis starting again in place of the most seriously injured player (Ryan Tannehill; ankle). , Willis averaged just 17.0 points and 48.5 net passing yards per game in two starts, but suddenly nearly overwhelmed the Cowboys (27-23) and Chiefs (30-24) in the past two weeks. Facing a spirited Texans team.
The total for this game is in the mid-thirties, which makes the underdog worth even more. The underdog, who has at least field goals and a total of 47 or less, has an ATS of 64-37 (63%) this season, covering an average of 2.2 points per game, according to Action Labs data.
What is Quickslip?
QuickSlip is an action network feature that allows users to automatically preload bet slips on FanDuel Sportsbook.
