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Economist: Slow Growth | News

According to Sonoma State University economist Robert Eyler, Lancaster — growth is slow and steady over the next few years and is likely to be in recession over the next two years.

Factors for the recession depend on how much interest rates are rising, what is happening in the crisis in Eastern Europe, and whether there is any more global turmoil.

“Much of what happens in the next eight months to guide us by 2022 will depend on the global situation becoming a little more stable and predictable,” economic science said. Eyler, president of the investigation and analysis, said. Wednesday at the AVEDGE (Antelope Valley Economic Development and Growth Company) Spring 2022 Business Summit.

Factors supporting the recession include interest rates rising high enough to step out of economic growth. Other factors include longer-than-expected rising levels of inflation and protracted problems in Eastern Europe.

It took California about 72 months to recover the jobs lost in the Great Recession that began in November 2007, with 98.8% returning to the beginning of the state.

“Recovery is slower than in the United States,” Ellah said.

The main reason California recovered more slowly than in other countries was due to Los Angeles County, where restrictions had a major impact on industries such as entertainment and travel.

Los Angeles County is starting to recover, with an estimated 97.9% retreat, Eyler said, adding that Kern County is almost 100% retreating.

In Antelope Valley, the number of people living in Lancaster and Palmdale who are working or looking for a job has decreased and have not returned to pre-pandemic levels.

Eyler cites two causes. The cost of returning to work, such as childcare, outweighs the benefits of returning to work, and people have retired and left the state.

The recovery rate for Antelope Valley was estimated at 95.5% as of April. According to Eyler, the region’s industries expected to grow over the next three years include healthcare, manufacturing, tourism and retail.

Eyler also covered rising home prices. Two years ago, Palmdale had a median home price of $ 344,000, now $ 492,000, Lancaster $ 317,000, and now $ 457,000. The median home price for the entire state is $ 715,000.

Lancaster and Palmdale have lost their population, and Bakersfield, California, and Tehachapi have mixed bags, but Kern County’s population has increased slightly, according to economists.

Eyler attributed migration to lack of economic opportunities and rising house prices, including rent.

California lost its population, but not the occupancy of residential units. For example, you can replace a family of four with a couple of two.

“There are two things we can think of from a demographic point of view in the next two years,” Eyler said, adding that he might choose not to start a family at all rather than starting a family later. ..

Looking to the future, California could reinstate mask obligations this fall as another COVID-19 variant spreads across the state. He warned that political uncertainties would also arise in the midterm elections in November this year. Gas prices could rise towards $ 7 a gallon by September.

The good news for Antelope Valley is that since 2015, the population is younger, with more than a bachelor’s degree compared to the counties and states of Los Angeles and Khan.

“You have to grab it and use it. Think of Antelope Valley rising instead of falling, but you have to catch it.”

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