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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has unintended consequences for Putin

A banner labeled “Slava Ukraini” (“Glory to Ukraine”) against the backdrop of a demonstration in support of Ukraine at Freedom Square in Tallinn, Estonia, after Russia invaded Ukraine on February 26, 2022. Empathy for Ukraine is growing in many parts of the world, but Russia’s costs are rising.

Raigo Pajura | Afp | Getty Images

It was widely believed that when Russia invaded Ukraine, it expected an easy victory over its neighbors.

But so far, Russia has rarely shown what is called a “special military operation.” Its troops have been stalled mainly in combat around the northern, eastern and southern parts of Ukraine, and the country has turned out to be much more organized and more equipped than expected.

Russian troops occupied only one city, Kherson, but even that occupation seemed unstable, and Ukrainian troops launched a counterattack to recapture the South Harbor. Similar movements have been seen elsewhere in Ukraine, with authorities claiming an increase in the number of counterattacks.

Just over a month after the war began, Moscow faces the unintended consequences of its invasion in Ukraine. This can range from military casualties to financial ruin in the coming years.

Five of them are:

1) Russia has many casualties

Russia is timid to publish statistics on its losses, but one Russian Defense Ministry official said on Friday that so far 1,351 Russian soldiers have died in the war and 3,825 have been injured.

Ukrainian officials claim that more than 15,000 Russian soldiers were killed in the conflict, but NATO officials estimated that 8,000 to 15,000 were killed last week.

On March 3, 2022, Ukrainian soldiers recovered equipment from the bodies of dead Russian soldiers after a Russian vehicle was destroyed by Ukrainian troops near Sitnyaki, Ukraine.

Marcus Yam | Los Angeles Times | Getty Images

To be precise, these numbers will be a big death to Russia. It is comparable to the approximately 15,000 Soviet soldiers who died during the 10-year war in Afghanistan in the 1980s. It takes a little, but a lot of blood.

The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) recorded a total of 1,151 deaths and more than 1,800 injured civilians in Ukraine, including 54 children, against the backdrop of Russian military casualties on Tuesday. He said he did. The number of casualties is quite high.

“Most of the recorded civilian casualties were caused by the use of explosive weapons with a wide range of collisions, such as artillery from heavy artillery and multiple launch rockets, missiles and airstrikes,” OHCHR said.

2) Ukrainians now hate Russia

One of the possible consequences of this war is that more Ukrainians have a relentless hostility to Russia. Russia’s attacks on private infrastructure such as children’s hospitals, maternity wards, and theaters where families were looking for shelters are widely regarded as war. Crime by the international community Russia claims not to target civilians.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in early March, “We will not forgive, remember, punish everyone who has committed atrocities in this war on our land.” In summary, “There is no quiet place on earth other than the tomb.”

In this still image from a distribution video obtained by Reuters, the car is burning after the destruction of the Mariupol Children’s Hospital on March 9, 2022.

Ukrainian Army | Via Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin praised the cultural, linguistic and historical links between Russia and Ukraine, but he promoted what is likely to be a permanent rust between nations. ..

Kira Rudyk, a member of the Ukrainian parliament, tweeted Monday, saying she was “increased anger” when she saw Ukrainian homes burning as a result of a Russian attack.

Putin has ridiculed Ukrainians in recent years, reiterating his belief that Ukraine is not a “state” but a historical part of Russia, in fact a creation.

A woman holding a child next to a destroyed bridge during an evacuation from Irpin on the outskirts of Kyiv, Ukraine, on March 28, 2022.

Oleksandr Ratushniak | Reuters

Meanwhile, many Ukrainians have spent much of the last two decades claiming separation from Russia, rejecting pro-Russian politics (and politicians), and two instead of one in 2004 and 2013. It has instigated a dramatic uprising. Euromaydan Revolution — Thousands of Ukrainians bravely confronted police atrocities and violent crackdowns to call for political change and call for Ukraine to join the EU.

This ambition urged the EU to urgently join the Ukrainian block, acknowledging that Ukraine may never join NATO as Ukraine appears to compromise to find peace. Deepened only under President Zelensky. Transactions with Russia.

3) Economic ruin

When Russia annexed Crimean from Ukraine in 2014, the international community was accused of being slow and ineffective. This time, when Russia’s full-scale aggression began, Western democracies imposed wide-ranging sanctions on Russia’s major sectors, businesses and individuals. Someone who is connected to the Kremlin or supports the intrusion.

As a result, Russia’s economy is expected to fall into a serious recession this year. The Institute of International Finance predicts that the war will shrink the Russian economy by as much as 15% in 2022. It also predicts that the Russian economy will decline by 3%. In 2023, last week’s memo warned that the war would “clean up 15 years of economic growth.”

Analysts at TS Lombard predict that Russians will experience a “serious blow” to their standard of living from a combination of recession and high inflation. Annual inflation is expected to reach 14.5% by the end of the third week of March. Christopher Granville and Madina Kurstareva said in a memo on Monday.

They added that this could have medium- to long-term consequences, especially at the political level, and as a result, Putin’s popularity is likely to be tested. However, he focused on one way Russia could mitigate the effects of sanctions. Economy: Boosting oil exports to China and India. OPEC’s Russian oil production ally also supports it.

4) Europe is dropping Russia’s energy

The war also accelerated Europe’s transition from Russia’s energy imports and had a major impact on the income Russia receives from energy exports.

It also has a $ 11 billion Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline (designed to bring more Russian gas to Europe (US, Poland and Ukraine have warned that it will increase energy insecurity in the region)). I made it redundant.

Landing facility for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in Lubmin, Germany, March 7, 2021. The Ukrainian War accelerated Europe’s transition from Russia’s energy imports, making the $ 11 billion NordStream2 gas pipeline redundant.

Hannibal Hanshke | Reuters

The EU, which imported about 45% of Russia’s gas in 2021, has promised to cut Russia’s gas purchases by two-thirds by the end of the year, and the European Commission has announced that Russia’s fossil fuels by 2030. I would like to stop purchasing. Meanwhile, the United States aims to step into the breach by supplying its liquefied natural gas to the region, but the transition remains complex.

“We know that Europe has allowed Russia to be overly dependent. [for energy] Germany … But it takes time to change the energy source. It’s not just about turning off the power overnight, “Fred Kempe, president and CEO of the Atlantic Council, told CNBC. At that time, we need oil and gas. “

5) Russia unified the West

During President Vladimir Putin’s 22-year administration, he moved the West, whether or not it was an interference with the democratic process of the United States (in the 2016 elections) and Europe (with right-wing funding). We have systematically and repeatedly tried to weaken and weaken. Serious incidents such as suspicion of the use of nerve agents against Tsubasa’s political group) or his personal and political enemies.

Military personnel in protective clothing will move police cars and other vehicles out of public parking as they continue to investigate Sergei Scripal addiction in Salisbury, England, on March 11, 2018.

Chris J Ratcliffe / Getty Images

Experts believe Putin expects the invasion of Ukraine to have a non-uniform effect on the West, allowing countries to agree on sanctions or send weapons to Ukraine. The opposite has been proven to be true.

“The Western reaction is unprecedented. It’s something no one could have predicted. It’s united and much more than anyone in Russia was preparing or preparing,” said Journal Riddle Russian politics. Analyst and editorial director Anton Barbasin told CNBC.

“In essence, as we know, it is the ultimate economic war that destroys Russia’s economy. [it].. Will these sanctions prevent Putin’s war in Ukraine? No, but it will certainly limit Putin’s time with Russia as it is today, “Barbasin added.


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