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Your betting guide to Sunday’s March Madness match

Michigan State vs. Duke Odds

Welcome to the sixth and final meeting between Tom Izzo and Coach K in the NCAA Tournament Since the first meeting two decades ago, the Blue Devils are 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS in those five meetings .

In the regular season, Coach K dominated Izzo, but Izzo rolls the Spartans in March, so the split comes as no surprise.

The Blue Devils are the clear favorites in this one, however. Sparty struggled in the second half of the season, being rewarded with a No.7 seed for his efforts.

But Duke is criminally overrated as the No. 2 seed, and we know that rivalry is still intense.

So seven points is too much?


Sales figures. Sales figures. Sales figures.

Sparty is 224th nationally in offensive turnover rate and finished dead last in Big Ten conference play. Their 452 total turnovers this season rank outside the top 300.

MSU relies heavily on its guard tandem of AJ Hoggard and Tyson Walker, and those two have racked up assists this season. Both are among the top 15 nationally among DI players in assist rate. assistance, while Hoggard actually paced the nation.

As a result, Michigan State ranks in the top 15 nationally for team assist rate.

But turnovers have cropped up time and time again, and it’s a big reason why Michigan State has lost seven of its last 10 games.

But Duke won’t press the ball. The Blue Devils rank outside the top 300 in defensive turnover rate and outside the top 350 in stealless turnover rate.

So Michigan State already has the upper hand in this game.

The victory over Davidson was tough and impressive, as the Spartans took a one-point victory as the two-point underdog (on the fence line). Joey Hauser was huge in this game, dropping 27 of 5 for 6 of 3.

I think Hauser will be important again in this one. Duke is very inefficient at defending both catch-and-shoot 3s and dribbling 3s, and Hauser should have plenty of those opportunities.


The No. 2 seed from Duke should have gone to Tennessee. The Vols rank higher in analytical metrics and NET.

But here we are.

At least Duke blew through Cal State Fullerton in the first round, unlike some other teams in its starting line (ahem, Kentucky).

Duke will try to run, although he hasn’t been in transition as much this season. The Devils have been particularly effective in cut situations, placing in the top five nationally in ShotQuality PPP.

Banchero is the guy. He’s averaging 17.6 points in his last five games, but people forget he can be a playmaker. He’s averaging 4.2 assists in his five bottom and ranks in the 95th percentile among DI players in assist rate (17.8%).

He’s been relatively ineffective this season, but his high usage rate forgives some of that.

The best thing the Blue Devils do is take care of the basketball. They are third nationally in the rate of turnover without theft. They tend to get shot.

Additionally, the Devils led the ACC in offensive rebounding rates and also tend to get a second shot.

The development of Mark Williams contributed to this. The 7-foot center has cracked the top 40 this season in offensive rebounding rate, and he actually led the Devils in the ORtg with a whopping 140.

But Williams’ versatility makes the Blue Devils particularly dangerous. In Duke’s first-round game, Williams dropped 15 points, caught seven boards, delivered five assists and recorded five blocks.

This is called filling the box score.

6-10 + Duke C Mark Williams, 20, established his position, finished around the basket, brought incredible energy to the glass + changed the game on defense He put up 15 PTS, 16 REBS, 4 ASTS, 3 BLKS + 1 STL in 33 MINUTES to help Blue Devils advance to ACC Tournament semifinals pic.twitter.com/gDMBWcwxCZ

— DraftExpressContent (@DXContent) March 11, 2022


Choice of bets between Michigan State and Duke

Duke just didn’t impress me this season. All the Blue Devils did was let the teams hang around in a super weak ACC and then the committee oversaw them.

Duke took a huge lead against CSF, but let the Titans trail late in the half. The Titans ended up covering in the end.

Now the Blue Devils have seven points against a team led by Izzo, and over 65% of the first tickets are on them. I think the Blue Devils are overvalued.

The key will be Michigan State not turning the ball over. But given Duke isn’t forcing too many turnovers, Walker and Hoggard could dish out nearly 20 assists.

I’ll take the points with Sparty.

Take: Michigan State +7 (Play to +6.5)

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