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COVID-19 pandemic deaths can be three times higher than expected: Study

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According to researchers, the number of deaths from a global COVID-19 pandemic could be about three times higher than official records.

In a study published in Lancet on Thursday, the authors’ group wrote that the estimated number of over-deaths exceeded 18 million, more than three times the reported 5.94 million deaths over the same period.

COVID-19 Excessive Deaths in US Top 1M since Pandemic Start: Report

They reached these conclusions with six models used to estimate expected mortality and all-cause mortality reports for 74 countries and territories, and 266 rural locations.

“We have built a statistical model to predict excess mortality in places and periods for which mortality data for all causes were not available due to incomplete mortality records around the world,” the author explained. ..

Excess mortality was estimated by comparing the total number of deaths reported from all causes to the expected number of deaths given recent trends. However, data for the period affected by registration delays and abnormalities is excluded.

“COVID-19 had the highest excess mortality rates in Andean Latin America, Eastern Europe and Central Europe, with high mortality rates in many high-income Northern Hemisphere countries and equally high mortality rates in almost all Latin America. It was a relatively low mortality rate. It was seen in Eastern Asia, Australia and the high-income Asia-Pacific region. COVID-19 across the region due to the surge in South Asia from April to August 2021. The cumulative excess mortality rate from Pandemic is above the levels observed in some high-income countries. COVID-19 could be one of the leading global causes of mortality during the pandemic, given its proportions and trends. ” .. “

USCOVID-19 Number of fatalities violation 900K mark

The limits of the study were the use of various modeling strategies, the exclusion of the most recent week and month of 2021 from the assessment, the estimated cumulative COVID-19 mortality rate, and most of the mortality data. However, COVID-19 is absent in most countries, and inclusion of other variables may improve model predictions, with strict lockdown and mediation interventions leading to negative mortality during a pandemic. Possible leads and different drivers are responsible for all causes and changes in causes-a specific mortality rate in a population. Estimates of excess mortality cannot be categorized by age or gender, and finally, the trend of excess mortality with COVID-19 changes over time as the range of vaccination between populations expands and new variants emerge. I expect it.

Understanding the impact of pandemics on true mortality is important for public health decision-making and future research, and increasing the availability of cause-of-death data is “of SARS-induced excess mortality. Important to distinguish between proportions. CoV-2 infection. “

According to Nature, this result is the first estimate of global mortality published in peer-reviewed journals, and a World Health Organization (WHO) -specific analysis will be published in late March.

Hydon Wang, a co-author of the study, a demographer and demographic health expert at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, said to separate COVID-19 deaths from COVID-19 deaths. He told the journal that more work was needed. The indirect result of a pandemic.

While some disagreed with the number of studies, Wang emphasized that different models and methods have different results.

For example, this model uses 15 variables to estimate a country’s mortality, but the economist’s model, which also reported “very similar” global mortality estimates, exceeds 100. There was a model that used variables.

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The authors spotlighted the statement that “the dramatic difference in estimated mortality between the two studies in many countries.”

According to the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center, 6,038,343 COVID-19 deaths have been reported worldwide since 2020, with 967,165 deaths in the United States.

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